The Killing of Yahya Sinwar and the Value of Tunnels in Urban Operations
The killing of Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and one of the chief architects of the Oct. 7, 2023 massacre of Israelis actually demonstrates the efficacy of extensive tunnel networks in maintaining command and control. For over a year, Israel’s domestic intelligence service (Shin Bet) and the Israel Defense Force (IDF) badly wanted to take out Sinwar and undertook significant efforts to find him. Sinwar was part of a triumvirate of leaders, including deputy head of the al-Qassam Brigades (Hamas’s military wing – though the distinction between the military wing and the rest of the organization is largely semantic), Marwan Issa, and commander of the al-Qassam Brigades, Muhammad Deif. These three leaders were not only crucial in planning and executing the Hamas attack on Israelis in towns and villages near the Gaza Strip, but also in conducting Hamas’s subsequent war with Israel in Gaza.
Despite the fact that Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza began on Oct. 27, 2023 (with prior targeting by the Israeli Air Force of Hamas personnel and assets in Gaza), these three leading figures were able to maintain command and control over the organization via utilization of Hamas’s extensive tunnel network. This occurred despite the intense Israeli bombardment of Hamas assets and the gradual conquest of the Gaza Strip by ground forces. Evidence of Hamas’s continued ability to function in the subterranean environment and maintain its command became clear when the first, and thus far only, hostage release was negotiated with Hamas in late November 2023. Hamas knew exactly where the hostages were (they were held in disparate tunnels) and was able to ensure that they all arrived at the venue of their release on time – and this despite heavy Israeli bombardments and ongoing large-scale military operations on the ground. This resilience, anchored in the organization's subterranean assets, led many at the time to assume that Hamas could weather the Israeli onslaught and come out of the war fairly unscathed, certainly in terms of the survival of its leadership.
As the war moved towards its first year anniversary, and Israel uncovered and destroyed increasing numbers of tunnels, Hamas command and control began to break down and Hamas went from fielding brigade-sized units to squads of fighters operating largely independently. As Israeli forces made methodical progress above and below ground, the organization’s leadership started to come under fire. Issa was killed in an air strike in March 2024 on an underground facility that was part of the tunnel network. Israeli forces did not know he was there, however, until it was able to confirm his death through a forensic investigation (thus, once again, demonstrating the efficacy of the subterranean environment in allowing wanted individuals to hide and continue to operate). Israel caught up with Deif, who had abandoned the tunnels, in July 2024, above ground hiding among civilians in one of the designated civilian safe zones that the IDF had set up.
Finally, Sinwar was killed in Rafah on October 16, 2024, a little over a year since the Oct. 7 massacre. He, too, had left the comparative security of the tunnels to go above ground and, by chance, came into contact with Israeli soldiers on a routine patrol and was spotted by an Israeli drone. As the elimination of Issa demonstrates, it is possible to have success in killing enemy leadership by targeting tunnels and other subterranean facilities (though Israel did not know he was there at the time), but enemies who appear above ground are taking a far greater risk and making themselves a much greater target.
As far as Hamas is concerned, the tunnels did prove their value, at least for a time, in keeping the organization intact and most of its leaders alive. It is highly likely that Israel would have achieved most of its objectives vis a vis significantly degrading Hamas and bringing about the collapse of its rule in the Gaza Strip significantly earlier, had it not been for Hamas’s extensive subterranean network.
For more on subterranean operations and Israeli counter terror operations, check out the new book Urban Operations: War, Crime, and Conflict, which has chapters on Tunnels by Andrew Craig and Israeli Urban Counter Terror ops by Nadav Morag.
Urban Operations: War, Crime, and Conflict by Eds. Sullivan, Jones, and Weisz Argomedo,
Boulder: Colorado, KeyPoint Press, 2024
The Rise of Urban Conflict
As cities grow in size and importance, they become strategically significant "commons" where various actors compete for power and profit. This competition can manifest in different forms of urban conflict, including:
Riots and Disorder: Civil unrest and public disturbances pose immediate threats to urban security.
Terrorism: Urban centers are attractive targets for terrorists due to their high population density and symbolic value.
Insurgencies: Urban environments offer advantages to insurgents, providing cover, resources, and access to populations.
Hybrid Warfare: Cities are complex environments where state and non-state actors can employ conventional and unconventional tactics.
Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO): The rise of megacities increases the likelihood of major military engagements in urban areas.
Challenges for Urban Security
Several factors contribute to the complexity of urban security:
Contested Authority: Many urban environments, particularly in developing countries, experience weak state control and the presence of alternative authority structures such as warlords, gangs, and militias.
Population Density: The concentration of people in urban areas increases the potential for casualties and collateral damage during conflicts.
Complex Terrain: Urban infrastructure, including high-rise buildings, underground networks, and dense street layouts, presents challenges for military operations and law enforcement.
Criminal Armed Groups: Sophisticated organized crime groups, increasingly referred to as Criminal Armed Groups (CAGs) in the literature, are driving urban violence in countries like Mexico.
Strategic Considerations for Urban Operations
Intelligence: Understanding the urban environment and the motivations and capabilities of various actors is crucial. "Intelligence preparation of the battlefield" (IPB) is vital for anticipating enemy actions and planning effective responses.
Civil Affairs: Protecting civilians and maintaining essential services during urban conflicts is paramount. Lessons from historical cases, such as the Canadian Army's Civil Affairs operations in Antwerp during World War II, highlight the importance of planning for the restoration of civilian infrastructure.
Interagency Cooperation: Effective urban security requires coordination between various government agencies, including law enforcement, intelligence, and emergency response services. The Boston Marathon bombing highlighted communication and coordination challenges that need to be addressed.
Ethical Considerations: The use of surveillance technologies, such as wide-area motion imagery (WAMI), raises concerns about privacy and the potential for discrimination.
The Future of Urban Warfare
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine provides a stark reminder of the destructive nature of urban warfare. The defense of Ukrainian cities highlights the importance of adaptable tactics and the role of urban defenders.
Experts predict an increase in urban violence in the future due to:
Continued population growth
The expansion of coastal cities vulnerable to climate change
The rise of feral cities where state control is absent.
The growing interconnectedness of cities through globalization facilitates the formation of networks between criminal organizations, further complicating urban security efforts.
Conclusion
Urban security is a pressing concern in an increasingly urbanized world. Understanding the complexities of urban environments, the dynamics of conflict, and the ethical implications of security measures is crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate risks and ensure the safety and well-being of urban populations.
Urban Operations now available
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